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TE

T1 Energy Inc. (TE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • First commercial revenues of $2.94M from G1 Dallas during the short post-close period in Q4, with gross profit of $1.23M and gross margin of ~41.8%; total net loss was $(367.2)M, driven by $(336.4)M from discontinued operations related to European portfolio reclassification and valuation charges .
  • Production ramp is ahead of plan: Jan–Feb 2025 module output exceeded plan by 48% (>220 MW), four lines commissioned (3 PERC, 1 TOPCon); inventory stood at $274.55M at year-end and 245 MW warehoused buffer heading into 2025 .
  • Guidance maintained: 2025 EBITDA $75–$125M on 3.4 GW production; G1 optimized run-rate EBITDA $175–$225M; combined G1+G2 run-rate EBITDA $650–$700M; module cost projected at $0.300–$0.325/W in 2025, with lower costs at G1 exit and with G2 .
  • Strategic catalysts: G2 Austin 5 GW solar cell facility site selected (capex up to $850M) with expected start of production in Q4 2026; CFIUS review ongoing for Trina transaction; planned conversion of G1 construction loan to term by Apr 30, 2025 .
  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to request limits; estimate comparison not included. Values from S&P Global were unavailable.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • G1 Dallas exceeded Jan–Feb 2025 production plan by 48%; four utility-scale lines commissioned (3 PERC, 1 TOPCon), tracking to 3.4 GW 2025 target .
    “Our teams are making impressive progress with the ramp of U.S. solar module production at G1 Dallas… on track to achieve the Company’s 2025 production target of 3.4 GW.” — CEO Daniel Barcelo .
  • First commercial revenues in Q4 from G1 Dallas and strong inventory build supporting 2025 deliveries ($275M inventory; 245 MW buffer) .
  • Guidance reaffirmed and strategic rebranding completed; Austin chosen as HQ, signaling focused U.S. execution and domestic content strategy .

What Went Wrong

  • Large non-cash charges tied to European assets: $(312.9)M valuation charge; discontinued operations net loss $(336.4)M in Q4, reflecting portfolio optimization and held-for-sale reclassifications (Giga Arctic and CQP fair values $37.5M and $5.6M) .
  • Elevated near-term leverage and financing needs: total liabilities rose to $1.10B; current debt portions of $94M and long-term debt/related-party debt totaling $427M; pending construction loan conversion .
  • S&P Global consensus estimates unavailable; lack of robust estimate context limits the ability to quantify beats/misses this quarter. Values from S&P Global were unavailable.

Financial Results

Key P&L vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.00 N/A$2.94
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)N/AN/A$1.23
Gross Margin %N/AN/A41.8% (calc from $1.23/$2.94)
Net Loss – Continuing Ops ($USD Millions)$(27.56) $(27.56) $(30.79)
Net Loss – Discontinued Ops ($USD Millions)N/AN/A$(336.36)
Net Loss – Total ($USD Millions)$(27.56) $(27.56) $(367.15)
EPS – Total ($)$(0.19) $(0.20) $(2.59)
EPS – Continuing Ops ($)N/AN/A$(0.22)
EPS – Discontinued Ops ($)N/AN/A$(2.37)

Notes: “N/A” indicates not disclosed in cited sources for that period.

Year-over-Year View (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.00 $2.94
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$0.00 $1.23
Net Loss – Total ($USD Millions)$(24.79) $(367.15)
EPS – Total ($)$(0.17) $(2.59)
Net Loss – Continuing Ops ($USD Millions)$(0.53) $(30.79)
Net Loss – Discontinued Ops ($USD Millions)$(24.25) $(336.36)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$253.34 $72.64

Segment/Operations Breakdown (Q4 2024)

CategoryQ4 2024
Continuing Operations – Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(30.79)
Discontinued Operations – Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(336.36)
Discontinued Assets Held for SaleGiga Arctic ($37.5M FV less cost); CQP ($5.6M FV less cost)

KPIs and Balance Sheet Items

KPI/MetricValue
Jan–Feb 2025 G1 Output vs Plan>220 MW, +48% vs plan
Production Lines Commissioned4 lines (3 PERC, 1 TOPCon)
Inventory (Dec 31, 2024)$274.55M
Warehoused Buffer (early 2025)245 MW
Offtake Contracts1 GW Trina; 500 MW RWE (first deliveries Q1 2025)
Deferred Revenue (Current)$48.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents$72.64M
Restricted Cash$4.00M
Total Liabilities$1.10B

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
EBITDA ($M)FY2025$75–$125 $75–$125 Maintained
Module Production (GW)FY20253.4 3.4 Maintained
G1 Dallas Run-Rate EBITDA ($M)Optimized G1$175–$225 $175–$225 Maintained
Combined Run-Rate EBITDA ($M)Optimized G1 + G2$650–$700 $650–$700 Maintained
Module Cost ($/W)FY2025$0.300–$0.325 $0.300–$0.325 Maintained
Module Cost ($/W)G1 Exit$0.275–$0.300 $0.275–$0.300 Maintained
Module/Cell Production (GW)G1 Exit / G2 Annual5.0 / 5.0 5.0 / 5.0 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Domestic Content & IRAEmphasis on financeable paths to revenue/EBITDA by 2025; balancing conventional tech strategy and cash runway . Q3 focused on losses, liquidity, no debt, strategic repositioning pre-acquisition .Vertical integration pivot; G2 Austin site selected; pathway to maximize domestic content; potential Section 48E bonuses .Strengthening domestic content narrative and execution path.
G1 Dallas RampNo revenue yet; planning for first revenues by 2025 .Exceeded plan in Jan–Feb; 4 lines online; tracking to 3.4 GW 2025 .Operational acceleration ahead of plan.
Offtake/Merchant MixBuilding towards financeable offtakes (Q2) .1 GW Trina + 500 MW RWE; merchant mix managed via Trina; sales channel mix targets 2025 exit vs G2 .Growing contracted base while managing merchant volumes.
Financing & LiquidityPreserving cash runway (~36 months) and discipline (Q2) .Convert G1 construction loan to term by Apr 30; multiple funding sources for G2 (project/mezzanine/45X/customer deposits/preferred) .Moving from preservation to targeted project financing execution.
European Portfolio OptimizationPrecursor signals of rationalization (Q2/Q3) .Discontinued ops classification with $(312.9)M non-cash valuation charge; assets held for sale .Aggressive non-core monetization underway.
Regulatory/CFIUSTransaction development (Q3) .Joint voluntary notice filed; CFIUS approval prerequisite to share conversion .Regulatory milestones in progress.

Management Commentary

  • “Having completed a transformative acquisition on an accelerated timeline, we are now focusing on the next phases of our plan to become an American, vertically integrated solar + battery storage leader.” — CEO Daniel Barcelo .
  • “Adding solar cell manufacturing is foundational to building out T1’s American supply chain… we look forward to continuing to partner [in Texas].” — CEO Daniel Barcelo .
  • “No changes to 2025 financial and operating guidance of $75–$125 million estimated full-year 2025 EBITDA based on projected 2025 module production of 3.4 GW at G1 Dallas.” — Company press release .
  • “Expect to convert G1 Dallas project financing construction to term loan in Q2 2025… prior to April 30, 2025.” — Company presentation .

Q&A Highlights

  • Offtake and inventory management: Management detailed fulfilling Trina offtake (1 GW) and RWE (500 MW); merchant volumes marketed via Trina; discussions ongoing with utility-scale developers .
  • Term loan conversion and liquidity: CFO reiterated expected conversion by Apr 30, contingent on commissioning/certification of all lines; highlighted potential incremental liquidity via G2 financing .
  • G2 Austin financing structure: Management outlined project financing up to ~50%, mezzanine options, 45X monetization, customer deposits; clarified no further Trina investment sought for G2 .
  • Customer due diligence and operating cadence: Utility-scale customers familiar with Trina have visited G1; impressed with automation; G2 expected to start production by end of 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to request limits, so estimate comparisons could not be performed this period. Values from S&P Global were unavailable.
  • Given first-time revenue recognition in a short stub period (8 days post-close), consensus coverage may be limited; update once SPGI access is restored .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term operational momentum is strong at G1 Dallas, with production ahead of plan and growing contracted volumes; this supports 2025 EBITDA guidance without changes .
  • The large Q4 loss is primarily non-cash and tied to European asset reclassification; focus is shifting decisively to U.S. solar module/cell manufacturing with G2 Austin .
  • Financing milestones are critical catalysts: watch for conversion of G1 construction loan by Apr 30, 2025, and G2 project/mezzanine financing progress; these events can de-risk the medium-term plan .
  • Domestic content strategy aligned with IRA 48E bonuses should support pricing power and customer demand; achieving vertical integration via G2 is key to margin trajectory .
  • Working capital build (inventory, advances to suppliers) and deferred revenue indicate ramp readiness; monitor balance sheet leverage and term loan conversion for liquidity management .
  • Short term: stock likely reacts to execution updates (production, loan conversion, offtake adds) and regulatory milestones (CFIUS); mid-term: valuation levered to successful G2 funding and 2026 start of production .
  • Reaffirmed guidance and operational beats suggest improving narrative; maintain focus on cash conversion, contract mix evolution, and cost per watt trajectory .